[NukeNet] NET LOSS OF ENERGY BY NPP INDUSTRY OVER FIRST 40 YEARS OF EXISTENCE
Bill Smirnow
smirnowb at ix.netcom.com
Mon Aug 14 02:36:04 CDT 2006
>At the end of forty years of the US nuclear
power
programme by 1991, this >energy- 381302
W-yrs -delivered to society is still less than
the gross >cumulative energy invested in nuclear
plant construction and maintenance >of 489174
MW-yrs! This analysis assumes only a portion of
the energy >used for waste storage and
maintenance.
ashok kumar <rakumra at yahoo.com> wrote:
Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 01:48:31 -0800 (PST)
From: ashok kumar
Subject: Fwd: energy audit of nuclear fuel
cycles
To: smirnowb at ix.netcom.com
Dear Dr. Smirnow:
As desired I am sending the energy audit of
nuclear power again. However, the attachment that
is the spreadsheet I am sending by separate email.
There is a correction in the reference: Instead of
Nuclear Energy International it should read
Nuclear Engineering International, April 1991.
Also I have made some minor typographical
corrections.
With best regards,
yours sincerely,
R. Ashok Kumar
ashok kumar <rakumra at yahoo.com> wrote:
Date: Thu, 11 Jan 2001 04:33:44 -0800 (PST)
From: ashok kumar
Subject: energy audit of nuclear fuel cycles
To: smirnowb at ix.netcom.com
CC: rashoin at yahoo.com
Dear Dr Smirnow:
I am sending the energy audit article
herewith. However the spread sheet 12A which
tables the energy audit is being sent by separate
e mail.
With regards,
yours sincerely
R. Ashok Kumar
Energy audit of nuclear fuel cycles
By R. Ashok Kumar,
B.E,M.E(Power),Negentropist,Flat 1/13, Telec
Officers' CHS.,Ltd.,Plot 30, Sector 17, Vashi,
Navi Mumbai-400705. Tel:7896209.
Although the gross nuclear capacity of the USA
reached 104820 MW (greater than 150 MW capacity
only considered), less than 20000 MW energy
capacity was in fact delivered to society in
1991(Spread Sheet No.12A: See attachment). This is
derived as follows:Gross cumulative energy
delivered to society (1991)= Megawatt-years/years
= 798370/40=19959 MW or 20000 MW approximately.
The rest was all consumed by the nuclear industry
itself. The actual energy- capacity delivered at
the consumption point was much less. Using a
figure of 0.597 for the plant factor, and 20%
transmission,distribution and conversion loss, the
amount of energy delivered by the programme
amounts to only 9.09% of the energy generated. For
the annual energy invested in the nuclear
programme, the energy generated per year per unit
was divided by a factor of 1.5(R. Ashok
Kumar.1989.The Indian Nuclear Energy Programme:A
Net Energy Analysis. PPST Bull. No.18.March.pp17:
Energy Invested in Waste Storage. See also
Appendix 1,this article.). Thus as the US
programme of commissioning of the nuclear power
plants progressed from 1952 to 1991 (end of my
study period for the US programme), the average
nuclear capacity added per year was 2621 MW while
the average nuclear industry demand was 12229 MW!
The cost overrun was 4.25. It is estimated(based
on assumptions given in the appendix) that the
programme started delivering net energy to society
only thirty years after the commencement of the
programme. And while it generated 1283911 MW-yrs
in 30 years,it delivered to society only 30% or
less in a brief period from 1981 only. At the end
of forty years of the US nuclear power programme
by 1991, this energy- 381302 MW-yrs -delivered to
society is still less than the gross cumulative
energy invested in nuclear plant construction and
maintenance of 489174 MW-yrs! This analysis
assumes only a portion of the energy used for
waste storage and maintenance.This American
civilian nuclear programme cost a total of Rs 45
trillion. This means Rs 45 Crores per Megawatt!
But as we saw above, this programme delivered to
society an energy capacity of 9532 MW per year
over 40 years , with an installed capacity of
104820 MW achieved over 38 years. As shown above
the US programme needed an additional gargantuan
amount of thermal power to construct the nuclear
facilities.The data for the nuclear capacity
additions were taken from Nuclear Engineering
International, April 1991.
Appendix 1
Nuclear Wastes Unmanageable: An audit of the
Energy Required
As of year 2000, 7925 reactor years of
operation have been completed in sixteen countries
which have operating nuclear power plants (Data
till 1990 have been taken from Nuclear Engineering
International April 1991). Thus the 16 countries
of the world generated by end 1990 in their
nuclear power plants 15714.1 TWh or 1793847 MW-yr.
The corresponding capacity was 290898 MW(337
reactors). Average nuclear capacity was
290898/337= 863.2 MW. All over the world the
number of reactors retired to date is 90 with a
total capacity of 77688 MW. Net capacity on line=
209898-77688=213210 MW. Energy generated by these
reactors from 1991 to 2000 amounts to 213210
MWxlifetime plant load factor of 0.64 x 10y=
1364545 MW-yr. Therefore the total energy
generated till 2000 from begin of nuclear
programmes= 1793847+1364545= 3158392 MW-yr. The
number of reactor years of operation till end 1990
was 4500. Taking the number of reactor years of
opeartion to be proportional to the energy
generated yields a total of 7925 reactor years of
opeartion. For this the power required for waste
storage and maintenance is 4.75 MW(thermal). See
Lovins. Technical Bases for Ethical Concern. In AH
Lovins and JH Price. 1975. Non-Nuclear Futures.
Harper-Colophon. p 97. This is at the rate of
1.505 watts per megawatt-year (of gross energy
generated) for waste storage and maintenance.
Now the energy invested in the nuclear power
programmes of the 16 countries till end 1990 was
1793847 x 0.5= 896923.5 MW-yr(See below for
derivation). From 1991 to 2000 units were retired
rather than added. Let us assume that the energy
invested remained at this value (1990 end value).
Then, net energy available after accounting for
the energy invested which included energy for
waste storage and its maintenance for 31500
years(see below) was 3158932-896924= 2261478(The
energy invested 896924, if considered at the bus
bars would be higher). Thus the number of
additional years of waste storage and its
maintenance which is obtained by dividing the net
energy available 2261478 MW-yr by the power needed
for waste storage and its maintenance 4.75
MW(thermal) is a maximum of 476101 years because
there is a conversion efficiency for electrical to
heat production of 50% to 80%. This is far from
enough for storing wastes for a million years or
more. Thus the nuclear energy programmes are net
energy consumers. The latest evaluation of waste
storage research proclaims this loudly(Institute
for Energy and Environmental Research. May 2000.
Science for Democratic Action. See also R. Ashok
Kumar, op cit. ).
The gross energy output per year at 100
percent plant load factor(PLF) divided by 1.5 is
taken as the energy invested per year. For a 1000
MW nuclear power plant at 100 % PLF net of process
inputs and zero losses, the energy invested per
year is thus 1000 MW-yr/yr/1.5= 667 MW-yr/yr. Now
if excluding waste storage ,at 62% PLF and 20%
transmission, distribution and conversion losses,
the net energy delivered is 1000x0.62x0.8=496
Mw-yr/yr,the energy invested in the nuclear power
programme is , at 1.8 ratio of output per year to
input per year, 496/1.8=276 MW-yr/yr. Thus the
energy investment debited to waste storage is
667-276=391 MW-yr/yr. The gross energy generated
by the 1000 MW nuclear power plant is 12400
MW-yr(electrical) during the 25 year lifetime of
the plant(the lifetime on the average for the
plant has been found to be just 17y). The power
required for its waste storage and its maintenance
is computed as follows:
Let us assume 10000 reactor-years of
operation. At this level,following Lovins op cit)
we have a power requirement of 1 watt(thermal)
per MW-yr of operation. Thus for 12400 Mw-yr of
generation ,the power required is 12400 watts or
0.0124 MW(thermal). Thus the 391 MW-yr/yr of
generation will power the waste storage for
391/0.0124 or 31532 years.
An estimate of the fraction of energy
generated debited to investment in the nuclear
power programmes can be done as follows:
Let us take four countries namely,the
USA,France, Japan and Canada. The energy generated
back of the 20% losses is given by the (sum of the
total nuclear industry demand and the net energy
delivered to society )/0.8. This for these four
countries for which the energy audit has been
worked out by the author becomes 2354460 MW-yr.
Details in a separate article. The nuclear
industry demand works out to 1175742 MW-yr which
is 50% of the gross energy generated.
A number of surprises as the nuclear power
programmes progressed over the world.
It must be noted that a number of surprises
have caused retrofits and replacements like the
steam generator premature replacements and the
replaced radioactive steam generators enclosed in
costly sarcophages worldwide. These have
enormously increased the energy invested in these
white elephants.
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