[NukeNet] About 12 Have Turned To IAEA For Nuclear Power For Nuclear Weapons

[Bill Smirnow]

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   http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/15/world/middleeast/15sunnis.html?hp
  Eye on Iran, Rivals Pursuing Nuclear Power

Dmitry Astakhov/Presidential Press Service, via Agence France-Presse - Getty
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King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia,
who is offering nuclear aid.


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By WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER
Published: April 15, 2007
Two years ago, the leaders of Saudi Arabia told international atomic
regulators that they could foresee no need for the kingdom to develop
nuclear power. Today, they are scrambling to hire atomic contractors, buy
nuclear hardware and build support for a regional system of reactors.

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So, too, Turkey is preparing for its first atomic plant. And Egypt has
announced plans to build one on its Mediterranean coast. In all, roughly a
dozen states in the region have recently turned to the International Atomic
Energy Agency in Vienna for help in starting their own nuclear programs.
While interest in nuclear energy is rising globally, it is unusually strong
in the Middle East.

"The rules have changed," King Abdullah II of Jordan recently told the
Israeli newspaper Haaretz. "Everybody's going for nuclear programs."

The Middle East states say they only want atomic power. Some probably do.
But United States government and private analysts say they believe that the
rush of activity is also intended to counter the threat of a nuclear Iran.

By nature, the underlying technologies of nuclear power can make electricity
or, with more effort, warheads, as nations have demonstrated over the
decades by turning ostensibly civilian programs into sources of bomb fuel.
Iran's uneasy neighbors, analysts say, may be positioning themselves to do
the same.

"One danger of Iran going nuclear has always been that it might provoke
others," said Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at the International
Institute for Strategic Studies, an arms analysis group in London. "So when
you see the development of nuclear power elsewhere in the region, it's a
cause for some concern."

Some analysts ask why Arab states in the Persian Gulf, which hold nearly
half the world's oil reserves, would want to shoulder the high costs and
obligations of a temperamental form of energy. They reply that they must
invest in the future, for the day when the flow of oil dries up.

But with Shiite Iran increasingly ascendant in the region, Sunni countries
have alluded to other motives. Officials from 21 governments in and around
the Middle East warned at a meeting of Arab leaders in March that Iran's
drive for atomic technology could result in the beginning of "a grave and
destructive nuclear arms race in the region."

In Washington, officials are seizing on such developments to build their
case for stepping up pressure on Iran. President Bush has talked privately
to experts on the Middle East about his fears of a "Sunni bomb," and his
concerns that countries in the Middle East may turn to the only
nuclear-armed Sunni state, Pakistan, for help.

Even so, that concern is tempered by caution. In an interview on Thursday, a
senior administration official said that the recent announcements were
"clearly part of an effort to send a signal to Iran that two can play this
game." And, he added, "among the non-Iranian programs I've heard about in
the region, I have not heard talk of reprocessing or enrichment, which is
what would worry us the most."

The Middle East has seen hints of a regional nuclear-arms race before. After
Israel obtained its first weapon four decades ago, several countries took
steps down the nuclear road. But many analysts say it is Iran's atomic
intransigence that has now prodded the Sunni powers into getting serious
about hedging their bets and, like Iran, financing them with $65-a-barrel
oil.

"Now's the time to worry," said Geoffrey Kemp, a Middle East expert at the
Nixon Center, a Washington policy institute. "The Iranians have to worry,
too. The idea that they'll emerge as the regional hegemon is silly. There
will be a very serious counterreaction, certainly in conventional military
buildups but also in examining the nuclear option."

No Arab country now has a power reactor, whose spent fuel can be mined for
plutonium, one of the two favored materials - along with uranium - for
making the cores of atom bombs. Some Arab states do, however, engage in
civilian atomic research.

Analysts caution that a chain reaction of nuclear emulation is not
foreordained. States in the Middle East appear to be waiting to see which
way Tehran's nuclear standoff with the United Nations Security Council goes
before committing themselves wholeheartedly to costly programs of atomic
development.

Even if Middle Eastern nations do obtain nuclear power, political alliances
and arms-control agreements could still make individual states hesitate
before crossing the line to obtain warheads. Many may eventually decide that
the costs and risks outweigh the benefits - as South Korea, Taiwan, South
Africa and Libya did after investing heavily in arms programs.

But many diplomats and analysts say that the Sunni Arab governments are so
anxious about Iran's nuclear progress that they would even, grudgingly,
support a United States military strike against Iran.

"If push comes to shove, if the choice is between an Iranian nuclear bomb
and a U.S. military strike, then the Arab gulf states have no choice but to
quietly support the U.S.," said Christian Koch, director of international
studies at the Gulf Research Center, a private group in Dubai.

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Decades ago, it was Israel's drive for nuclear arms that brought about the
region's first atomic jitters. Even some Israeli leaders found themselves
"preaching caution because of the reaction," said Avner Cohen, a senior
fellow at the University of Maryland and the author of "Israel and the
 Bomb."

Egypt responded first. In 1960, after the disclosure of Israel's work on a
nuclear reactor, Cairo threatened to acquire atomic arms and sought its own
reactor. Years of technical and political hurdles ultimately ended that
plan.

Iraq came next. But in June 1981, Israeli fighter jets bombed its reactor
just days before engineers planned to install the radioactive core. The
bombing ignited a global debate over how close Iraq had come to nuclear
arms. It also prompted Iran, then fighting a war with Iraq, to embark on a
covert response.

Alireza Assar, a nuclear adviser to Iran's Ministry of Defense who later
defected, said he attended a secret meeting in 1987 at which the commander
in chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Iran had to do
whatever was necessary to achieve victory. "We need to have all the
technical requirements in our possession," Dr. Assar recalled the commander
as saying, even the means to "build a nuclear bomb."

In all, Iran toiled in secret for 18 years before its nuclear efforts were
disclosed in 2003. Intelligence agencies and nuclear experts now estimate
that the Iranians are 2 to 10 years away from having the means to make a
uranium-based bomb. It says its uranium enrichment work is entirely peaceful
and meant only to fuel reactors.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's concerns grew when inspectors found
evidence of still-unexplained ties between Iran's ostensibly peaceful
program and its military, including work on high explosives, missiles and
warheads. That combination, the inspectors said in early 2006, suggested a
"military nuclear dimension."

Before such disclosures, few if any states in the Middle East attended the
atomic agency's meetings on nuclear power development. Now, roughly a dozen
are doing so and drawing up atomic plans.

The newly interested states include Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Yemen and the seven sheikdoms of the
United Arab Emirates - Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Al Fujayrah, Ras al Khaymah,
Sharjah, and Umm al Qaywayn.

"They generally ask what they need to do for the introduction of power,"
said R. Ian Facer, a nuclear power engineer who works for the I.A.E.A. at
its headquarters in Vienna. The agency teaches the basics of nuclear energy.
In exchange, states must undergo periodic inspections to make sure their
civilian programs have no military spinoffs.

Saudi Arabia, since reversing itself on reactors, has become a whirlwind of
atomic interest. It recently invited President Vladimir V. Putin to become
the first Russian head of state to visit the desert kingdom. He did so in
February, offering a range of nuclear aid.

Diplomats and analysts say Saudi Arabia leads the drive for nuclear power
within the Gulf Cooperation Council, based in Riyadh. In addition to the
Saudis, the council includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United
Arab Emirates - Washington's closest Arab allies. Its member states hug the
western shores of the Persian Gulf and control about 45 percent of the world
's oil reserves.

Late last year, the council announced that it would embark on a nuclear
energy program. Its officials have said they want to get it under way by
2009.

"We will develop it openly," Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign
minister, said of the council's effort. "We want no bombs. All we want is a
whole Middle East that is free from weapons of mass destruction," an Arab
reference to both Israel's and Iran's nuclear programs.

In February, the council and the I.A.E.A. struck a deal to work together on
a nuclear power plan for the Arab gulf states. Abdul Rahman ibn Hamad
al-Attiya, the council's secretary general, told reporters in March that the
agency would provide technical expertise and that the council would hire a
consulting firm to speed its nuclear deliberations.

Already, Saudi officials are traveling regularly to Vienna, and I.A.E.A.
officials to Riyadh, the Saudi capital. "It's a natural right," Mohamed
ElBaradei, the atomic agency's director general, said recently of the
council's energy plan, estimating that carrying it out might take up to 15
years.

Every gulf state except Iraq has declared an interest in nuclear power. By
comparison, 15 percent of South American nations and 20 percent of African
ones have done so.

One factor in that exceptional level of interest is that the Persian Gulf
states have the means. Typically, a large commercial reactor costs up to $4
billion. The six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council are estimated to
be investing in nonnuclear projects valued at more than $1 trillion.

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Another factor is Iran. Its shores at some points are visible across the
waters of the gulf - called the Arabian Gulf by Arabs and the Persian Gulf
by Iranians.

The council wants "its own regional initiative to counter the possible
threat from an aggressive neighbor armed with nuclear weapons," said Nicole
Stracke, an analyst at the Gulf Research Center. Its members, she added,
"felt they could no longer lag behind Iran."

A similar technology push is under way in Turkey, where long-simmering plans
for nuclear power have caught fire. Last year, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan called for three plants. "We want to benefit from nuclear energy as
soon as possible," he said. Turkey plans to put its first reactor near the
Black Sea port of Sinop, and to start construction this year.

Egypt, too, is moving forward. Last year, it announced plans for a reactor
at El-Dabaa, about 60 miles west of Alexandria. "We do not start from a
vacuum," President Hosni Mubarak told the governing National Democracy Party
's annual conference. His remark was understated given Cairo's decades of
atomic research.

Robert Joseph, a former under secretary of state for arms control and
international security who is now Mr. Bush's envoy on nuclear
nonproliferation, visited Egypt earlier this year. According to officials
briefed on the conversations, officials from the Ministry of Electricity
indicated that if Egypt was confident that it could have a reliable supply
of reactor fuel, it would have little desire to invest in the costly process
of manufacturing its own nuclear fuel - the enterprise that experts fear
could let Iran build a bomb.

Other officials, especially those responsible for Egypt's security, focused
more on the possibility of further proliferation in the region if Iran
succeeded in its effort to achieve a nuclear weapons capability.

"I don't know how much of it is real," Mr. Joseph said of a potential arms
race. "But it is becoming urgent for us to shape the future expansion of
nuclear energy in a way that reduces the risks of proliferation, while
meeting our energy and environmental goals."
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